Not yet. Bitcoin trades near $80,812 on a $1.31B options expiry day. Total stablecoin supply has slipped from a $409.2B peak to $404.9B, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.99%. Fresh buying power is thin and rates are high, so I’m staying flat until liquidity or yields improve.
A confession first. Today is a $1.31 billion Bitcoin options expiry, the kind of session that usually tempts me into a trade. I’m not taking one. My screens are open and my order ticket is empty. This is a deliberate decision, and this entry in my trading journal explains why.
The headlines want attention. Reports describe whale withdrawals and wider institutional activity, with some desks targeting $84,000. Another story notes that roughly $1 billion flowed into ETFs while price still failed to bounce. That second detail matters more to me than the first. When big inflows can’t lift price, something underneath is pulling the other way. Before I trade, I want to know what that is, so I run through three dashboards and ask one question: what would make me act?
Is crypto liquidity drying up right now?
Dashboard one is the liquidity tide. Stablecoins are the dry powder of crypto. They are the dollars parked on-chain and on exchanges, ready to buy dips. When that pile grows, bounces have fuel. When it shrinks, they fade.
Here is the shape of the past month. Total stablecoin market cap climbed from about $385.5B to a peak of $409.19B roughly two weeks ago. Since then it has drifted lower almost every day, to $404.86B today. That is a $1.25B decline over seven days. On a 30-day view the supply is still up $19.36B, so this is not a collapse. The tide has turned, though, and it has stayed out for two weeks.
The other on-chain readings are mixed rather than bearish:
- Active addresses: 497,584 today, above the 7-day average of 464,939 and 3.0% above the 30-day average. The 30-day series has bounced between about 415k and 549k, so usage is steady but not breaking out.
- Transaction count: 913,196, which is 28.2% above the 30-day average. Activity is busy even though price is flat.
- Hashrate: 1,215.9 EH/s, up 31.6% over 30 days. Miners are committing capital and showing no sign of stress.
- Mempool: fast fees at just 1 sat/vB. Blockspace is cheap, so there is no rush to settle on-chain.
Read together, the network is healthy and the security budget is growing. The marginal buyer, the stablecoin holder ready to deploy, is slowly leaving. Healthy fundamentals with a receding liquidity tide is my definition of a market to watch, not chase. The chart below shows the stablecoin curve rolling over from its peak while active addresses hold their range.
Why is Bitcoin struggling with yields near 5%?
Dashboard two is the macro wall, and today it is tall. The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.99%, up 0.71% on the day. Oil is at a six-month high, which keeps inflation worries alive. The dollar index is firm at 101.81. Even gold, which normally benefits from uncertainty, fell 1.29% to $4,007.9.
When gold drops alongside crypto, the problem isn’t fear. The problem is the cost of money. A risk-free yield of almost 5% raises the bar for every speculative asset. Equities feel it too: the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.21%. Bitcoin is down 1.03% on the day and 0.97% on the week. That is a quiet slide, but it matches the pattern of risk assets.
The link to the stablecoin data is direct. When Treasury bills pay this much, some on-chain dollars move back into T-bills or money-market funds. Higher yields and shrinking stablecoin supply are one story told twice.
Dashboard three: TradFi can’t agree on on-chain rails
The institutional picture is split. Franklin Templeton is putting $150M of fund shares on the XRP Ledger. That is a real vote of confidence in public-chain settlement from a major asset manager. At the same time, Wells Fargo and others are objecting to OKX-ICE tokenized stock listings. Part of traditional finance is building on-chain, and part is guarding its turf.
Neither move changes today’s price. XRP is down 2.61% on the day at $1.29 despite the Franklin news. The split does tell me that the institutional bid is still a debate, not a steady flow. Elsewhere, Robinhood is expanding Bitcoin custody in Dubai, and JPMorgan’s ten-year scenarios range from $380,000 to $20,000. Long-term stories like these can’t override a 5% yield in the short term.
What does futures positioning say?
The derivatives data supports staying patient. Funding is flat at 0.005%, so nobody is paying up to hold leverage. The long/short ratio is 2.16, though, with 68.3% of accounts long. That is a crowded long position. Open interest fell 1.66% while price fell, which points to longs closing or being liquidated rather than new shorts piling in.
Crowded longs that are slowly unwinding usually need one sharp flush before a clean bottom forms. The Fear & Greed Index reads 51 (Neutral), up from 50. That fits a market that isn’t scared enough to be a bargain. BTC dominance is 59.47%, which tells me capital is hiding in the majors rather than chasing alts. MemeCore’s 12.88% gain is an exception, not a signal.
What are today’s key Bitcoin support levels?
| Level | Role | My plan |
|---|---|---|
| $83,500 | Trend-change resistance | A daily close above it breaks my bearish lean |
| $82,000 | Short-term resistance | Start of the zone for a tactical short |
| $80,812 | Current price | → No trade |
| $80,000 | Psychological support | Watch for a wick below it |
| $79,000 | First buy zone | Start building a long here |
What would make me buy Bitcoin again?
This is the core of the journal. I’ll act when one of three triggers fires:
- Trigger 1: the liquidity tide turns. I need several days of rising stablecoin supply, ideally back above $407B. Fresh dry powder would put the dip-buyers back.
- Trigger 2: yields break lower. A 10-year yield below 4.9% would ease pressure on all risk assets.
- Trigger 3: a flush to $79k. If crowded longs are cleared and price reaches the first buy zone, I’ll buy into the weakness.
If price moves before any trigger, these are the concrete setups:
- Short scenario: sell a bounce into $82,000–$83,500. Stop above $84,200, slightly beyond the $84k target that bulls are talking about. Targets are $80,000 first, then $79,000. Keep it small and quick, because this is a counter-trend trade in a neutral market.
- Long scenario: scale in near $79,000 after a flush, ideally with open interest dropping sharply. Stop below $77,800. Targets are $82,000, then $83,500.
Short-term trades like these depend on execution, and fees add up quickly on in-and-out trades. I check how much I’m giving back on each round trip. If you trade often, compare the BingX fee payback program for active traders with the Bitunix 70% fee payback sign-up guide. Fee-payback signup links are also at the end of this post.
My stance
My view is neutral with a slight short lean, and flat is a position I’m comfortable holding. The ETF and whale headlines are real, but they aren’t the binding constraint. The binding constraint is a 5% risk-free rate pulling dollars out of the stablecoin pool. Until that changes, I’ll treat rallies toward $82k–$83.5k as chances to sell, not reasons to buy. I would much rather miss the first 3% of a real rally than pay for a fake one with a crowded long book.
Risk warning: options expiry days can produce sharp wicks in either direction as hedges unwind. A short squeeze through $83,500 is entirely possible, especially if yields reverse. Use stops, size positions modestly, and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. None of this is financial advice.
FAQ
Why is Bitcoin down today?
Bitcoin fell 1.03% to about $80,812 as the 10-year yield rose to 4.99% and the dollar firmed at 101.81. Stablecoin supply also slipped $1.25B over the week.
How big is today’s Bitcoin options expiry?
About $1.31B in BTC options expire today. That can add volatility around the $80,000 psychological level.
Is the crypto market overleveraged right now?
Positioning is long-heavy rather than overleveraged. The long/short ratio is 2.16 with 68.3% of accounts long, but funding is flat at 0.005% and open interest fell 1.66%.
If you found today’s post helpful, please subscribe and like.
Real-time briefings and new-post alerts on Telegram: t.me/corecryptoinsights · Follow on X: @core_trading1
If you’ve been trading without a fee payback, you’ve been losing money this whole time — start getting your trading fees back today.
▶ BingX 45% fee payback — full sign-up guide
▶ Bitunix 70% fee payback — full sign-up guide
▶ BingX vs Bitunix — which saves you more?
Leave a Reply